Your Real Odds of Getting Into Each World Marathon Major

Getting into a World Marathon Major comes down mostly to luck, and the odds are worse than most runners think. There are eight Majors now, after Cape Town joined in June 2026, and each one lets you in a different way.

The numbers below are the odds through the main public ballot, the free draw open to any runner. A few races give their own residents a better shot through a separate or weighted draw, which we flag race by race, so you can find where you fall. All of them change every year. Charity and travel packages are a separate path, covered at the end.

Here's how the eight stack up, best shot to longest:

Sydney: the one you can actually get into

Sydney is the easiest way in right now. It only became a Major in 2025, and its open ballot is still the friendliest of the group.

A record 123,000 people applied for the 2026 race, up 56% in a year, for a field of about 40,000. The race hasn't published an acceptance rate, but that points to a draw of roughly 1 in 3, and of the eight, Sydney is the Major you're most likely to get into within a couple of tries.

Chicago: a genuine shot

Chicago is the one US Major you can realistically ballot into. It switched to a lottery in 2023, and recent draws land near 1 in 3, though estimates run from 25 to 35% and the race publishes no official figure.

There's also a guaranteed back door that skips the lottery: finish all three Chicago Distance Series events in one year, the Shamrock Shuffle 8K, the Chicago 13.1, and the marathon, and you are in for the next.

Berlin: fair odds on the fastest course

Berlin has long been one of the easier Majors to get into, and it's the fastest course in the sport, where most world records are set. The 2026 cycle drew about 100,000 applicants for roughly 30,000 ballot places, which works out to around 1 in 3.

One note: Berlin gives German residents slightly better odds, so applicants from outside Germany see a little worse than that.

Tokyo: a real long shot

Tokyo draws around 300,000 applications for a field near 37,000, so the ballot runs at roughly 1 in 10, which means most runners apply two or three years before getting in.

Tokyo holds back a quota of bibs for international entrants, so their odds tend to be about the same as, or a touch better than, local ones. And if you lose the draw three years straight as a ONE Tokyo member, you move into a smaller priority lottery.

London: the longest odds of the big ballots

London is the hardest ticket in the sport. A record 1,133,813 people applied for the 2026 race, chasing under 20,000 ballot places, which puts the odds at about 1 in 65, or 1.5%.

UK residents and overseas runners go into the same ballot, but UK residents also get routes overseas runners don't, like Good For Age qualifying times and running-club places.

The ballot is free to enter, so most runners put their name in every year and wait.

New York: a 1-in-100 shot

New York now has the smallest lottery odds of any Major. For 2026, more than 240,000 people applied, nearly 20% more than the year before, and only about 1% got in through the drawing, the lowest rate in the race's history.

The draw favors New York residents first, then the rest of the US, then international runners, so where you live shifts your real chance a little, though the odds stay tiny for everyone.

Anyone who runs nine NYRR races and volunteers at one can skip the lottery through the 9+1 program, which mostly suits runners who can get to New York through the year.

Boston: no luck, just a fast time

Boston is the exception, with no general lottery, so luck plays no part. You need a Boston Qualifier, a certified marathon under your age and gender standard, and even that is not enough on its own.

For 2026, 33,249 qualified runners applied and about 8,900 of them were turned away despite hitting the standard. To get a place, you had to beat your standard by an extra 4:34. The BAA also made the standards themselves five minutes faster for 2026, so the qualifier is harder to run than it used to be.

Cape Town: the brand-new eighth Major

Cape Town became the eighth Major, and the first in Africa, on June 10, 2026, and joins the calendar fully at its May 2027 race. Its ballot for that 2027 race ran in June 2026, but the organizers haven't released application numbers or an acceptance rate, so there's no reliable figure to quote yet.

One thing to know: about two thirds of ballot places are reserved for African runners, so everyone else competes for the remaining third, which could make its international ballot really tough. There is no qualifying-time route.

The two ways in that work for everyone: charity and tours

Miss the ballot and you still have two options at almost every Major, both trading money for near-certainty.

Charity is the main one. Run for an official charity partner, commit to a fundraising minimum, and your place is basically guaranteed. The minimums vary: London runs about £2,000 to £3,000, Chicago and New York around $2,500, Tokyo roughly $1,300 (about ¥200,000), and Sydney in the $3,000 (to $5,000 AUD range). Boston is the expensive exception, with charity minimums that usually start near $5,000.

Tour operators are the other. Official international travel companies sell packages with a guaranteed bib built into hotels and transfers, which makes them the priciest route. One catch: US and Canadian residents can't enter Boston through a tour operator, so that door is closed for them.

How to shift the odds in your favor

A few things improve your chances without paying for a bib:

• Apply every single year. Each draw is independent, so your chances add up over time. Five years at 10% odds gives you about a 40% chance of getting in at least once.
• Chase a qualifying time. A fast enough marathon opens a time-qualifier route at almost every Major, all but Cape Town, and at Boston it's the only way in.
• Use the loyalty and guaranteed routes. Tokyo rewards three straight rejections with a priority draw. Chicago's Distance Series guarantees a spot if you run its three races in a year, and New York's 9+1 does the same for nine NYRR races plus a volunteer shift.
• Lean on your stars. Once you've finished three or more Majors, the series runs a second-chance drawing for the ones you still need.

A note on these numbers

Odds reflect the most recent cycle, mostly 2025 and 2026, and they change every year. The application counts for London, New York, Sydney, and Boston are official figures from the organizers, as are the New York and Boston acceptance numbers. Sydney, Chicago, and Berlin acceptance rates are estimates, since those races don't publish an official rate, so treat them as ballpark, not exact.